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The University of Kansas’ Memorial Amphitheater is pictured on Monday, Aug. 7, 2017.

Part of Kansas football and its falling fortunes involves a algebraic problem. The key cardinal in the blueprint is about $6 million.

A Journal-World analysis of Kansas Contest Inc. affairs begin that KU needs to advertise about $6 actor in added tickets per year aloof to get the affairs aback to the abrupt celebrity canicule it had about a decade ago in the Mark Mangino era.

KU football acceptance sales hit a contempo aiguille of $9.5 actor in 2009. In 2017, football acceptance sales hit a new contempo low of $3.4 million, according to NCAA letters filed by the university.

What to do? There is consistently the access of acquisitive that Drillmaster David Beaty’s arrangement clicks in his fourth season, the wins appear and so do admirers in seats. KU able-bodied admiral are cyberbanking on that strategy. There is absolutely a articulation of fans, though, who are not affairs it.

What abroad to do? You could recruit The Six Actor Dollar Man and redeem him for banknote value. No? Well, then, you could undertake about $300 actor in football amphitheater improvements — best of them fan amenities — in an attack to allurement bodies aback into the stands. Maybe. KU admiral accept started the fundraising campaign.

When KU appear in September affairs to body $350 actor in new facilities, primarily for football, it apparent the alpha of one of the bigger banking bets the affairs has anytime made. The Journal-World absitively to abstraction the banking books, allocution to leaders, and accord readers a bigger compassionate of the money d that is consistently a allotment of big-time academy athletics. To see added accessories go to: ljworld.com/kuath

To some, The Six Actor Dollar Man action sounds added plausible.

Murray Sperber, a longtime analyzer of academy able-bodied spending, doesn’t anticipate a adherent amphitheater is activity to draw added fans. He does anticipate it is a heck of a banking risk.

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Sperber — who became one of the aboriginal critics of academy able-bodied spending with his 1990 book “College Sports Inc.” — is now a assistant emeritus at the University of California-Berkeley. That academy has become the affiche adolescent of the dangers of such big bets. It adapted its Memorial Amphitheater — granted, costs were acutely aerial because the amphitheater is on a accountability band — but now the Cal able-bodied administration is pond in red ink, admitting football crowds that still top 40,000.

“They accept they absent $14 actor aftermost year,” Sperber said of the Cal able-bodied department. “But that is the low number. Really, it is apparently $20 actor to $25 million.”

The bearings has become so acute at Cal that the university afresh agreed to booty over about $400 actor in able-bodied administration debt. The anticipation of acid some of Cal’s 30 sports programs, however, still remains.

The situations at Cal and KU aren’t absolutely analogous. Alike if KU debt-financed all of the $300 actor in amphitheater improvements — which it won’t — KU’s debt totals still would be beneath Cal’s. But Cal additionally is a abundant beyond university in agreement of acceptance and alumni base. While KU’s dollar abstracts may be beneath than Cal’s, the risks to KU are still great. Sperber urges KU admiral to absolutely anticipate through authoritative such a big bet.

“Nothing we accept talked about credibility to $350 actor in improvements,” Sperber said, citation the abounding fundraising ambition that additionally involves improvements for volleyball and added sports.

KU Able-bodied Director Sheahon Zenger counters that he’s been cerebration about it back his aboriginal day on the job. To bodies in the academy able-bodied industry, it is bright that KU has a big bill looming.

“This day has been advancing for decades, and we accept kicked the can bottomward the alley as a aggregate accumulation over the years,” Zenger told the Journal-World. “We had a admirable stadium. It is still a admirable amphitheater and setting, but it is accepting earlier and we accept to abode it. There is no book area you can accept to not abode it. I don’t anticipate that is a achievable option.”

KU, though, finds itself in a bearings area its bill is advancing due at a time that fan absorption in the football affairs is hitting new lows.

The Journal-World afresh asked the able-bodied administration to accommodate numbers assuming how abounding tickets absolutely accept been purchased for KU football anniversary year over the aftermost 10 years. KU officials, though, said those numbers were not readily available.

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However, the academy is appropriate to address its absolute dollar bulk of football acceptance sales to the NCAA anniversary year. As expected, those numbers appearance acceptance sales acicular in the after-effects of KU’s affecting 2007 division that culminated with a 2008 Orange Bowl victory. It additionally shows that KU admirers were still spending big in the seasons appropriate afterwards Mangino — the Orange Bowl-winning drillmaster — was ousted. But gradually, the backbone of KU admirers has eroded, and the basal has collapsed out of acceptance sales the aftermost three years.

Here’s a attending at the numbers:

— 2006: $6.47 million

— 2007: $5.88 million

— 2008: $6.81 million

— 2009: $9.50 million

— 2010: $9.28 million

— 2011: $9.25 million

— 2012: $6.56 million

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— 2013: $5.51 million

— 2014: $5.24 million

— 2015: $3.99 million

— 2016: $4.09 million

— 2017: $3.41 million

From their aiguille in 2009, KU football acceptance sales are bottomward by $6.09 actor or about 65 percent.

The $6 actor figure, though, is aloof one to consider. A beyond cardinal is to attending at how abundant acquirement has been absent cumulatively. If KU had been able to sustain fan activity a 2009 levels — say, $9 actor a year in acceptance sales — KU Contest would be advanced by about $25 million. That is the aberration amid $9 actor a year in football acceptance sales against what KU absolutely awash in tickets, according to NCAA reports.

A 65 percent abatement in football acceptance sales would actualize a banking crisis for abounding able-bodied departments. KU’s able-bodied department, though, has been acknowledged in accepting added money out of KU basketball fans. In 2006, KU was breeding about $474 in acceptance acquirement per bench at 16,300-seat Allen Fieldhouse. That bulk doesn’t accommodate any appropriate contributions in adjustment to accept the befalling to buy tickets. By 2017, the per bench acquirement had developed to $926. Here’s a attending at the absolute dollar bulk of basketball tickets awash over the years:

— 2006: $7.72 million

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— 2007: $9.47 million

— 2008: $10.85 million

— 2009: $10.91 million

— 2010: $11.79 million

— 2011: $11.34 million

— 2012: $11.93 million

— 2013: $12.86 million

— 2014: $14.52 million

— 2015: $15.63 million

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— 2016: $14.91 million

— 2017: $15.10 million

NCAA numbers additionally appearance that KU’s three affliction banking years of the aftermost decade accept coincided with the abatement in football acceptance sales. The affliction year was 2012, back costs exceeded revenues by $8.7 million, abundantly due to a arrangement buyout for accursed arch drillmaster Turner Gill. The additional affliction year was in 2015, back costs exceeded revenues by about $347,000. The third affliction year was 2017, back the NCAA address showed revenues exceeded costs by about $540,000. As appear in aftermost week’s article, KU’s audited banking statements — which are altered from the NCAA address — showed a worse achievement for 2017.

Zenger is alert of the banking numbers, but they accord him no abeyance in blame advanced on the $300 actor in football improvements. He knows KU’s fan abject expects to attempt in the top bank of academy football, and, in some ways, these awaiting improvements are aloof a amount of admission.

“Do you anticipate Kansas care to attempt at the Division 1 level?” Zenger says, relaying accomplished conversations he has heard. “The acknowledgment is consistently yes. If so, do you anticipate we should attempt in a Power 5 conference? The acknowledgment is yes. Again it is affectionate of a arguable point.”

Others, though, admiration whether Kansas care to amend what the amount of acceptance care to be. David Ridpath is an accessory assistant of sports business at Ohio University and is lath admiral of the Drake Group, an alignment that advocates for added banking albatross in academy athletics.

He argues that Kansas care to anticipate about how abundant it needs to absorb to abide a big-time amateur in academy athletics. As continued as it maintains its men’s basketball tradition, Ridpath contends, KU doesn’t accept to absorb as abundant as abounding added schools. Kansas can be a appropriate football affairs after a $300 actor investment, and there are absolutely no guarantees that KU will be a acceptable one alike with such an investment.

But actuality appropriate doesn’t do abundant to activity the passions of the alumni or donors. It would booty a change in mindset, but conceivably not a aitionist one. The characterization “basketball school” has continued been absorbed to KU.

“I anticipate Kansas, because of who they are in basketball, is consistently activity to be in a big conference,” Ridpath said. “They aloof may never be that acceptable in football. But, then, they accept to ask themselves how abundant do we appetite to absorb aggravating to be acceptable in football? It is activity to be actual tough.”

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