Safe Obama Canton Predictions
Carlton Canton 63.4% ObamaCook Canton 62.0% ObamaHennepin Canton 63.8% ObamaItasca Canton 55.0% ObamaLake Canton 60.8% ObamaMower Canton 61.6% ObamaRamsey Canton 68.1% ObamaSt. Louis Canton 65.2% ObamaSwift Canton 55.0% Obama
These were the accessible ones. Not alone did Obama win all nine of these counties, he won them all by bifold digits, although about so with Itasca and Swift Counties. In consecutive cycles, I’m acceptable to add a brace added counties to this class afterwards their 2012 performances able their assurance for Democratic Presidential nominees.
Likely Obama Canton Predictions
Beltrami Canton 55.1% ObamaBig Stone Canton 50.7% RomneyBlue Earth Canton 54.9% ObamaChippewa Canton 51.0% ObamaFreeborn Canton 57.2% ObamaKittson Canton 53.1% ObamaKoochiching Canton 54.8% ObamaLac qui Parle Canton 50.5% ObamaMahnomen Canton 59.2% ObamaNorman Canton 55.6% ObamaRice Canton 54.2% ObamaWinona Canton 56.6% Obama
I got one amiss here, and it was the canton that I should accept had “Lean Obama” rather than “Likely Obama” all along. Big Stone is a tiny, rural canton in the state’s far western abut with a affluent Democratic attitude but with amazing citizenry losses amid the actual bearing that fabricated the canton so Democratic in the aboriginal place. Big Stone County’s neighbors in west-central Minnesota allotment the aforementioned “farm Democrat” full-blooded and saw the weakest performances for Obama this year. Part of this is that Obama is abnormally ill-fitted to the area’s contour and allotment of it is that all the old Democrats are dying off while all the kids leave the breadth afterwards graduation day. On the added hand, the Native American citizenry advance is so amazing in Beltrami and abnormally Mahnomen Counties that I anticipate from now on those counties may be in the “safe Democrat” categorization. Freeborn and Winona Counties are actual aing to that beginning as well.
Lean Obama Canton Predictions
Clay Canton 54.1% ObamaFillmore Canton 53.8% ObamaGrant Canton 51.5% RomneyNicollet Canton 54.0% ObamaPope Canton 51.3% RomneyTraverse Canton 52.3% ObamaYellow Medicine Canton 53.2% Romney
Much added of a alloyed bag in this accumulation as the account of counties is disproportionately fabricated up of those west-central Minnesota old-school acreage Democrat areas that were anemic for Obama this year. Keep in apperception that I was basing my account on an apprehension of a 10-point Obama win statewide rather than eight-point win that materialized, and had that been the case, added of these attenuated Romney counties would accept angled Obama, but alike with that in apperception Obama underperformed acceptable Democratic numbers by abrupt margins in this area. No Democrat acceptable by eight credibility statewide has any business accident Grant or Pope Counties based on actual voting patterns, for instance. The blow of the counties on my account played out abundant afterpiece to expectations.
Tossup/Tilt Obama Canton Predictions
Aitkin Canton 50.7% RomneyDakota Canton 51.5% ObamaHouston Canton 51.6% ObamaOlmsted Canton 51.6% ObamaPine Canton 50.3% RomneyPolk Canton 52.9% RomneyRed Lake Canton 51.3% RomneyStevens Canton 50.2% RomneyWashington Canton 50.4% ObamaWatonwan Canton 50.3% Romney
Clearly this accumulation was on the razor’s bend aback I fabricated my predictions so it’s not hasty my batting boilerplate actuality was alone about .500. Again, had Obama won by one or two credibility added statewide, best of these attenuated Romney counties would accept angled to the acceptable guys. And of the aing counties in the accompaniment (two-point margins of difference), it seemed like aloof about all of them went Romney.
Tossup/Tilt Romney Canton Predictions
Anoka Canton 51.3% RomneyGoodhue Canton 51.5% RomneyLincoln Canton 52.7% RomneyMarshall Canton 56.3% RomneyMurray Canton 53.7% RomneyNobles Canton 54.7% RomneyPennington Canton 52.6% RomneyRenville Canton 55.0% RomneyWabasha Canton 52.8% Romney
I accurately predicted the champ in all of this class and while best of them were at atomic analytic close, those western Minnesota balance counties angry stronger to Romney than I anticipated. These counties are still in ability for assertive affectionate of Democrats, alike at the Presidential level, but the likelihood is that all of them will apparently be activity Republican added about than not in federal contest for the accountable future.
Lean Romney Canton PredictionsKandiyohi Canton 53.4% RomneyLyon Canton 54.7% Romney
It would accept taken a cogent double-digit allowance statewide for Obama to win in either of these counties, but alteration demographics still fabricated them added aggressive than they were in either of the Bush elections.
Likely Romney Canton Predictions
Benton Canton 57.0% RomneyChisago Canton 56.4% RomneyClearwater Canton 57.4% RomneyCottonwood Canton 57.7% RomneyFaribault Canton 54.7% RomneyJackson Canton 57.3% RomneyKanabec Canton 54.6% RomneyLe Sueur Canton 53.3% RomneyMeeker Canton 58.2% RomneyMille Lacs Canton 54.4% RomneySteele Canton 53.2% RomneyTodd Canton 58.2% RomneyWaseca Canton 53.9% Romney
No surprises that best counties in the accumulation went double-digits or high-single digits for Romney. A few of them in southeastern Minnesota assume to be abatement a bit but are still appealing durably in the Republican corner. A cardinal of these counties are on the balloon for accepting the “safe Republican” appellation but I captivated aback on them because in every case the appropriate affectionate of Democrat has accurate him or herself able of actuality aggressive and occasionally winning, alike at the Presidential level.
Safe Romney Canton Predictions
Becker Canton 57.4% RomneyBrown Canton 58.5% RomneyCarver Canton 60.0% RomneyCass Canton 56.6% RomneyCrow Wing Canton 56.8% RomneyDodge Canton 55.2% RomneyDouglas Canton 57.9% RomneyHubbard Canton 58.6% RomneyIsanti Canton 59.3% RomneyLake of the Woods Co. 60.3% RomneyMcLeod Canton 61.4% RomneyMartin Canton 62.2% RomneyMorrison Canton 62.3% RomneyOtter Tail Canton 60.8% RomneyPipestone Canton 62.1% RomneyRedwood Canton 60.3% RomneyRock Canton 59.2% RomneyRoseau Canton 61.3% RomneyScott Canton 57.6% RomneySherburne Canton 61.3% RomneySibley Canton 61.7% RomneyStearns Canton 56.2% RomneyWadena Canton 62.4% RomneyWilkin Canton 60.0% RomneyWright Canton 61.1% Romney
No abruptness at all that every canton in this class went Romney by bifold digits. These counties are all either abiding Republican strongholds or counties that accept been trending GOP essentially in contempo years. Most states accept a appealing accessible applicant for which canton will be its best Republican anniversary cycle, but in Minnesota there are a cardinal of contenders for that position. This year Wadena Canton won a bound four-way chase as the best Republican canton of the state. In 2008 it was Sibley Canton which is commonly not amid the best GOP in the state. Also in altercation this year and added years are Roseau, Pipestone, Rock, Redwood, and Martin Counties. Morrison Canton has alone afresh become a adversary for the state’s reddest county. And curiously, the best Republican canton in accompaniment contest is about consistently Carver County, but in Presidential contest it usually isn’t at the top of the account of red counties.
As for the state’s bluest county, St. Louis Canton has captivated that bays for about all of my life, but the alteration ancestral agreement of St. Paul appears to accept catapulted Ramsey Canton to a akin of abomination that will acceptable audacious St. Louis Canton in best approaching races, as it did this year. Hennepin Canton never acclimated to be amid the state’s bluest but agnate demographic changes accept fabricated it so in contempo cycles. The state’s canton map hasn’t afflicted spectacularly back the 80s, but the amount of abomination and bloom in assertive counties has while a dozen or so counties accept undergone a complete transformation politically back the Dukakis-Bush race.
Amy Klobuchar won 85 of Minnesota’s 87 counties, aloof as I suspected, with Pipestone and Rock Counties in Minnesota’s southwestern bend actuality the alone two holdouts for Bills. Those counties accept a huge cardinal of breakable evangelical voters and are in the Sioux Falls, SD, media market, breadth few voters would be acceptable to alike apperceive who Amy Klobuchar is. This creates a political ambiance breadth Republicans are advantaged in about every race. I was afraid at the admeasurement to which Klobuchar’s backbone continued to double-digit wins in every added county, however. Bills’ abridgement of competitiveness alike in the exurbs took me by surprise, with abundant 75% Romney precincts activity for Klobuchar all over the state.
In the House races, I ample Tim Walz would vanquish Allen Quist by added than 20 credibility in MN-01. Quist was abundantly funded, however, and had an absorbing attendance on the airwaves compared to Walz’s accomplished challengers, and Quist additionally backward abroad from the amusing issues that were the centerpiece of his administration in the legislature. As a result, Walz’s win was 15 points, which is impressive, but abate than expected.
I was additionally afflicted by Mike Obermueller captivation John Kline to distinct digits in MN-02. In a Democratic-leaning year, Obermueller’s achievement acceptable represents article aing to a highwater mark for Democrats for as continued as Kline holds the seat, but should Kline retire I’d say Obermueller has admirable allowance of acrimonious up this seat, decidedly with Presidential year assembly in Northfield.
I ample Erik Paulsen was a assert to get over 60% adjoin his Some Dude amateur and was afraid that he alone managed 58% in MN-03, but I still anticipate Paulsen would be the best Republican the GOP has to claiming Franken in 2014. McCollum and Ellison denticulate anticipated blast margins in their burghal districts.
Michele Bachmann, on the added hand, actively underperformed. I ample the aftermost Star Tribune poll assuming Bachmann up by six would be aing to the final result, and didn’t see Graves accepting to added than 49% of the vote in that district. Had the commune curve not afflicted from 2010 and the commune still had Stillwater and Woodbury instead of Waconia and Norwood Young America, Graves would accept won this affair and I accept to accord him a hat tip for his effort.
Collin Peterson won with 60% alike with an Independence Party applicant siphoning off a cogent allotment of the vote, which is annihilation to apprehend at, but it does assume as admitting the 70% Peterson margins of the mid-2000s may be over as MN-07 seems to be acceptable added Republican. The Democrats accept a solid bank in this commune for aback Peterson retires, but it’s still gonna be an acclivous ascend to see the Democrats captivation this bank aback that time comes.
And in MN-08, I was addled by the weakness of Chip Cravaack, who ran a about able re-election attack and whose arena d attendance fabricated it attending like he was a admired adjoin Nolan. From the get-go, I was assured Nolan would win this chase because of the full-blooded of the district, but I ample it would be a three or four-point race. I wouldn’t accept believed Nolan would vanquish Cravaack by nine credibility and overperform Obama. Especially hasty was how able-bodied Nolan did in the district’s bourgeois southern counties which seemed like a solid abject for Cravaack who I ample was a adequate brainy fit for the area.
There’s not abundant to say about the election amendments added than I was afraid that both were voted down. Typically the absence vote for election initiatives is “no” which I should accept taken agenda of, but aback it comes to gay marriage, I didn’t anticipate Minnesota was absolutely there yet. But I was alike added afraid by the aborigine ID alteration admitting as I didn’t anticipate voters would accept the faculty to adios that gimmick anywhere. The bipartisan action ads from Arne Carlson and Mark Dayton seemed to accept fabricated absolutely a aberration in axis the course on that issue.
As for both the accompaniment Senate and accompaniment House flipping to the DFL, it was a little hasty but not that hasty accustomed how able the DFL was in the accompaniment this year. The courts already afresh drew awful aggressive aldermanic districts in Minnesota which will beggarly that the narrowest accessory advantage in a accustomed aeon acceptable agency a flurry of seats trading hands. This has been the case back 2002 in Minnesota with absolute seat-flipping every two years.
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